The Volokh Conspiracy

Why Did Reagan Coddle Iran (and Hezbollah)?

I've always been puzzled why Reagan didn't try to punish Iran for taking American hostages. And then barely reacted when Hezbollah killed over 200 marines, and tortured CIA station chief Buckley to death. And then tried to sell weapons to Iran. Near as I can tell, it's because the Reagan Administration had one huge priority, and that was to defeat Communism. (Although we did back Saddam for a while against Iran.) Fanatical muslims, Administration officials hoped, were potential allies of the U.S. against godless Communism, just as they turned out to be in Afghanistan. Is this a reasonable summary? Any commentors with expertise on this?

You can't really blame the Reaganites too much, as they did indeed defeat Communism. But they also seem to have sowed the seeds of WWIII, by allowing and sometimes encouraging fanatical anti-Western Sunni and Shiite Islamicism to flourish, just as Roosevelt and Truman laid the groundwork for the Cold War by cooperating with Stalin to defeat Hitler--and being way too naive about their putative "ally."

Ilya Somin:
I think this is basically correct. Reagan (rightly in my view) prioritized defeating communism ahead of dealing with Iran. It is also worth noting that the USSR in the 80s was not only more powerful than Iran but also a much more important funder and supplier of terrorist groups.
Finally, Iran probably didn't seem like too big a threat as long as it was embroiled in a prolonged and costly war with Iraq, as it was throughout almost the entire time Reagan was in office.

That said, the Reagan Administration did commit a grave error in agreeing to the "arms for hostages" deal, in failing to punish Hezbollah for the Beirut bombing (even though I think the US should have stayed out of Lebanon entirely at that time), and in generally allowing the Iranians to think that the Great Satan is a paper tiger. Even given the constraints of the Cold War, Reagan could probably have been somewhat tougher on Iran than he was.
7.14.2006 10:22pm
Enoch:
they also seem to have sowed the seeds of WWIII, by allowing and sometimes encouraging fanatical anti-Western Sunni and Shiite Islamicism to flourish,

Um... what do you expect them to have done? Seriously? Invade Iran? Realistic options were strictly limited.
7.14.2006 10:36pm
picpoule:
I really don't think Reagan grasped fully what was happening. Before Reagan, Iranian "students" stormed our embassy in Tehran and held 77 Americans hostage for 444 days. And remember all the airline hijackings during the late 1970's and early 1980's? Unfortunately, no one in the West understood what the Islamic revolution in Iran really meant. Without hesitation, I place the blame for what's happening today at the feet of Jimmy Carter who didn't support the Shah, who wasn't ideal but who was friendly to the West. Even if Carter didn't understand the world view of the vicious terrorists inspired by Iran, the Shah might have been persuaded to hold democratic elections. Carter did not try to pressure the Shah, he just abandond him -- and look what that wrought. With the mullahs in place, Iran unleashed Islamic terrorism on the world. And it took the world a long time to wake up to what was happening. It still hasn't dawned on some of the world.
7.14.2006 10:48pm
cw (mail):
Regan made a deal with Iran to hold off releasng the hostages until after the election in exchange for not retaliating.
7.14.2006 10:48pm
Cato:
I think you are fundamentally correct, but I think you must add to it a couple of points. First, Iran captured with the embassy classified documents on CIA procedure. It was the first foreign power to have this. Intelligence officials were rightly scared of pulling out plans that Iran already had in their possession, and it ain't easy to come up with new ones.

Second, intelligence believed that the Sunni/Shia split would limit Iran's ambit. Little did the analysts realize that the Ayatolla's thumbing his nose at the US would lead to dramatically increased funding for Wahhabi madrassas, as the Wahhabi's feared being outdone in their preaching of terror by the Shia's popularity.
7.14.2006 10:58pm
frankcross (mail):
Despite the enormity of the ideological hate and love for Reagan, he was basically a pragmatist. I think that was why he was successful.
7.14.2006 10:59pm
picpoule:
Cato, I don't think we really understood the depths of the Sunni/Shia split, that in Sunnis eyes, Shias are worse than Jews. Maybe I'm wrong, but I'd be surprised if our understanding of all of this was that sophisticated back then.
7.14.2006 11:04pm
Sean Sorrentino (mail):
the basic reason was the Soviet Union. the USSR was supplying all the arab regimes and supporting and directing a lot of the terror groups. can you think of another reason that still to this day the terror groups spout marxist jargon?

I think that Reagan wanted to avoid getting into another proxy war vs. the terror groups and focus on bringing down the main enemy by economic means. instead of spending our own lives while the Sovs spent the lives of puppets, we spent money that we had in carlot loads making the USSR try to build up militarily to match us. instead of shooting at them, we collapsed their economy. now we get the task of cleaning up the mess they left behind.

i think it is a bit of a cheap shot to complain that the US, having run the Evil Empire out of business, failed to kill off the USSR's puppet terrorists at the same time.

watch the series "Commanding Heights" for a quick rundown on the strategy we used to run the USSR out of business.
7.14.2006 11:24pm
Per Son:
One can blame the support for the Shah by the US and Britain for much of the anti-West sentiment in Iran leading up to the revolution. The Shah was as bad to his people as the Czars were to their people. The problem is the person who comes next might not be better or is at least as bad (and yes I think the Czars were as bad as Stalin).
7.14.2006 11:53pm
Waldensian (mail):

just as Roosevelt and Truman laid the groundwork for the Cold War by cooperating with Stalin to defeat Hitler

I don't understand this comparison. Roosevelt and Truman obviously had no choice but to cooperate with Stalin to defeat Hitler. Recall that WWII basically was the fight between Hitler and Stalin. The importance of every other theater totally paled in comparison. As just one example, the Soviets had 200,000 casualties in the first ten days of the Battle of Kursk alone.
7.15.2006 12:02am
Vovan:
1. Islam and US's interest were closely intertwined long before USSR's involvement in the region - one only has to read the history of the house of Saud to realize it. Islam in the region was used to combat the spread of trade unionism and organized labor in the 30's, 40's and 50's - very effectivly I might add. Regean invented nothing, nor did he diverge from the course, he simply followed the scheme put forth by the 7 sisters. He might have hoped that the Iranians come around, just like Saudis did, but he miscalculated.


the basic reason was the Soviet Union. the USSR was supplying all the arab regimes and supporting and directing a lot of the terror groups. can you think of another reason that still to this day the terror groups spout marxist jargon?

2. Heh some people have no friggin clue. The only "regimes" that Soviet Union supported during the Regan time are Syria, part of Yemen and to some extent Iraq. Lebanon was a black hole, Egypt and Jordan were US proxy's - forget 1979 peace treaty?, Saudi Arabia and the other sheikhdoms were also largly influenced by the US policies.

3. PLO was the only terrorist group in the region funded by the Soviets. HAMAS - Muslim Brotherhood - Hezbollah - they were movements funded by Iran and by the Saudis, there are no records of Soviets funding them (if you see a picture of a guy with an AK, it does not mean he bought it off the Russians - by the 80's there were billions of them floating in the world)

4. If someone like Putin came to power 26 years ago, USSR would still be alive and kicking, Reagan or no Reagan, the economic policies while significant in it of themselves, are being greatly overemphasized here.
7.15.2006 12:16am
Vovan:
Waldensian

Roosevelt and Truman obviously had no choice but to cooperate with Stalin to defeat Hitler. Recall that WWII basically was the fight between Hitler and Stalin. The importance of every other theater totally paled in comparison.

Don't even bother, most everybody on this blog assumes that lend-lease was the most important thing that won the war. Soviets were just a conveninet proxy for the might of the Studebacker truck. Hell, even if turks would get those trucks then they would kick Hitler's ass to the stratosphere.
7.15.2006 12:21am
DavidBernstein (mail):
Put the emphasis on "naive" not "cooperate." FDR, in particular, used to unfavorably compare Churchill to Stalin, no?
7.15.2006 12:24am
Brooks Lyman (mail):
Per Son -

Sorry, but no way were the Czars as bad as Stalin - or lenin (although Lenin didn't kill quite as many people as Stalin). The Czars' victims measure in the thousands - low thousands, I believe - while Lenin and Stalin killed tens of millions. Check out Solzhenytsyn's Gulag Archipelago or Robert Conquest's The Great Famine as a start - just a start, mind you. Solzhenytsyn covers the czarist situation, so you can get some reference.
7.15.2006 12:26am
Vovan:
Brooks Lyman

heh, if you take all teh tsars together, proportionately they killed a hell of a lot of people, but they had more time to do it. As for Solzhenitsyn, he is a committed monarchist, anti-semite, and in recent times a complete loon. He is longing to bring the monarchy back to Russia along with the revival of the Cossacks.
His works should not be looked upon as any sort of historical research, which unfortunately it is being cited as.
7.15.2006 12:40am
Anderson (mail) (www):
he was basically a pragmatist

A pragmatist doesn't trade arms for hostages, thereby encouraging Iran to take more hostages (which is exactly what happened).

Reagan was taken in by his subordinates &by his own failure to manage them.
7.15.2006 12:42am
BGates (mail) (www):
I am always surprised at the notion that there could never be cooperation between secular Saddam, fanatical Sunni al Qaida, and fanatical Shia Iran, given that we know the last (and to a small extent the first) were aided by Reagan, the Christian leader of a secular republic.
7.15.2006 12:59am
Brian Garst (www):
I think you are correct. As that was the beginning of the emergence of the radical Islamist threat, I don't think the Reagan administration really understood how serious it would become. Their focus was necessarily concentrated on defeating communism, they simply didn't have the capability of worrying about an emerging threat when they had much more immediate threats to deal with.
7.15.2006 1:04am
Daryl Herbert (www):
This ties in with the idea that the main reason was Reagan's prioritizing the struggle against Communism, but the USA really, really did not need to get into another Vietnam.

We've seen how much trouble Israel has had in dealing with Arabs. We see how much difficulty we're having in the current Iraq war.

Now imagine the current Iraq war, but take away two decades of American military research and technology. Take away political correctness, which, for all of the bad things it brings to the acadame, is downright helpful in putting together a disciplined army that will commit fewer war crimes. Take away 9/11, which created a commitment in most Americans--gave us a really good reason to want to fight against terror, even overseas, in someone else's country.

Then watch all of the Arab nations cuddle up even closer to the USSR. Arabs might be upset about Afghanistan, but ArabsMuslims have always put the interests--and pride--of Arab Muslims over other Muslims or other Arabs. The genocide in Darfur is accceptable because the black Muslims are n---ers in the eyes of the Arabs.

It would have been disastrous for America to take on Hezbollah all-out, and it would have been counter-productive to half-heartedly attack Hezbollah.

It's too bad that we can't fight every good fight and can't win every good war (f--- yeah, Utopia now!). But we have to act accordingly. And sometimes, that means temporarily letting bad guys off the hook. America will pay Hezbollah back for what it did, sooner rather than later--there's no point in Israel going in half-heartedly.
7.15.2006 1:08am
Daryl Herbert (www):
A pragmatist doesn't trade arms for hostages

He does if it means we get hostages back, and Iranians use those weapons to kill Arabs.

A very cynical pragmatist, perhaps, but a pragmatist through-and-through.
7.15.2006 1:09am
mr. meade (mail):
I think Reagan giving Iran a pass may have something to do with something I vaguely remember called "Iran/Contra". Maybe Oliver North could do a guest posting to explain the details.
7.15.2006 1:47am
dw (mail):

You can't really blame the Reaganites too much, as they did indeed defeat Communism


The largest Communist state, China, has been far from defeated, and the Chinese Communist Party, however clumsily, has managed to maintain authority while evolving to accommodate a far-from-free market economy.

In the case of the collapse of the Soviet Union, internal factors played a role that cannot be discounted. One factor alone, the inability to create an information infrastructure for determining prices in a command economy, may well have been the single greatest factor in the collapse. Of course, external military pressure played a role, but by all measures, aside from missle strength, the capacity of the Soviet military for rapid and coordinated action had been seriously reduced over the last decades of the Soviet Union. Again, the lack of a modern information infrastructure played a major role. From this viewpoint, the single most important factor in the West's response to Communism was an embargo on technology transfers, a policy that was actually somewhat weakened in the Reagan years.
7.15.2006 1:55am
K Parker (mail):
Per Son,

and yes I think the Czars were as bad as Stalin
Well, I think a certain V.I. Lenin, a sometime political prisoner of the last Czar, would probably disagree with you. Would Lenin or Stalin have released their own Lenin? Not a chance...
7.15.2006 2:10am
PaulV (mail):
How many Iranians died in Iraq-Iran war where Iranians used children to clear mines. The US gave Saddam intelligence about Iranian troop movement but necer enough to win. No coddling there. How much support from Comgress did Reagam have after barracks were blown up, not much.
7.15.2006 2:14am
Nico:
Er, what FDR did wrong in WWII was to tell Stalin about the A-bomb at Yalta and to get him to declare war on Japan (later) when it wasn't clear yet that the bomb would work. Of course, it was too soon and it may have seemed advantageous to have Stalin fight Japan, at that time, but in practice this begat us North Korea, and the Korean war, and the current nutcases over there.

Truman couldn't correct the problem.

Reagan did want to focus on defeating the soviets, and did a fine job of it. It's just that he and his administration could have acted somewhat differently if they'd understood what a threat the mullahs would turn out to be, and maybe spared us some of our current troubles, but it's hard to tell, and we can only speculate.
7.15.2006 2:27am
Harry Eagar (mail):
I dispute the accuracy of most of your background assumptions.

Reagan did not bring down the USSR. It fell of its internal contradictions, primarily its disastrous agricultural policy.

Reagan did not take on Iran because he never took on anybody more formidable than Panama. He spent most of his time sleeping and telling fantasy stories that he could not distinguish from reality. As Adelman says in his admiring book about arms control, Reagan managed to devote exactly one hour to strategizing about that one.

It's true that Reagan was obsessed with communism, to the exclusion of having any other meaningful foreign policy.

With no direction from the top, US attitudes were the traditional hesitancies of Foggy Bottom, which had been inherited intact from the hesitancies of the British Empire.

The British learned (in 1857 if not earlier) that meddling very deeply in any limited area of Islam brought with it the distinct danger of an explosion elsewhere and almost everywhere in Islam -- exactly the behavior we see in 2006.

Carter tried to square a circle: he wanted to treat a Muslim country as if it were capable of integration into a modernist political/social system. This is not possible. All majority Muslim states are failed states. This was not Carter's fault.

Very few people in 1979 were willing to write off Islam, even fewer to identify it as a system that will have to be remade (to the point of destruction) in order to integrate into a world of intimate communications. Even in 2006, only a smallish minority have grasped the first point; very, very few indeed the second.

The Islamists get it, though. They keep telling their co-religionists and us that Islam and Dar-al-Harb cannot coexist. We should listen.

++++

As for the side issue about the US and UK allying with the USSR to defeat Hitler, the issue there is not whether Roosevelt was naive. If we hadn't allied with the USSR, we would not have defeated Hitler.

During the months of June-July 1944, while a small western army was bottled up in Normandy, the Red Army destroyed Army Group Center, a formation that was as large as all the German forces in western Europe (excluding the Italian theater). On his own, Eisenhower would still be in London.
7.15.2006 2:32am
Ming the Merciless Siamese Cat (mail):
DW writes:

The largest Communist state, China, has been far from defeated, and the Chinese Communist Party, however clumsily, has managed to maintain authority while evolving to accommodate a far-from-free market economy.


Oh please! As a long-time China resident, I can assure you that China ceased being Communist in anything but name and formalistic ritual many years ago. The CCP maintained control by transforming itself into what is essentially a nationalist facist party.

Actual Communism was defeated in China as surely as it was in the Soviet block. The fact that the same band of kack-handed kleptocrats managed to retain their grasp on political power in China doesn't change the fact that they had to jetison their communist ideology to do so.
7.15.2006 2:48am
Third Party Beneficiary (mail):
To echo Enoch's post above, anyone who says Reagan "should've done something" about Iran has the burden of explaining exactly what that "something" could have been and how it was practical. Any sort of significant military action against Iran would have generated even more American casualities and run the serious risk of triggering a real WW III with the Soviet Union.
7.15.2006 9:33am
Justin (mail):
Oh, come on 3rd Party, we know what that "something" was.

They should have invaded Iraq! :)
7.15.2006 10:11am
Kevin L. Connors (mail) (www):
The lesson here is that the law of unintended consequences is immutable.
7.15.2006 10:22am
Mr. Bingley (www):
Dang it, I thought hindsight was supposed to be 20/20?
7.15.2006 10:33am
ajf (mail) (www):
this is a comment on the thread from a friend who has worked in the region for quite awhile. and while i know "anonymous sources" are suspect, i think the thoughts contained are relevant:


"creating" the cold war [referring to roosevelt and truman] and "creating" muslim fanatics [referring to reagan] are neat and tidy revisionist explanations for unintended consequences.

plus a war with iran.....oh come on. a. could we win it? b. it was completely against our policy -- that is punishment wars (we are not queen victoria's england) -- it would have been very out of line with what we had been doing.

(ref current war with iraq: a. could we win? yes. b. was it supportive of policy? yes.)

recall as well that we were going to conduct a raid and as part of that raid us ac-130 gunships were going to be flying over the tehran keeping everyone away from the embassies and helo LZs. that would have been ugly.

what israel is doing isn't all that surprising.

[then, referring to a conversation with christian friend in lebanon:]

i agree with X, all her christian friends now are cursing hizbollah and hoping the israelis do the job (that they can't) of getting rid of hizbollah.

15 civilians in one mini bus killed just out in the news -- X's response....no way, i know the people in the south and no way would they all pile into a car like that. must be hizbollah.
7.15.2006 11:13am
Bruce:
You can't really blame the Reaganites too much, as they did indeed defeat Communism.

Sigh. Communism defeated itself.
7.15.2006 12:04pm
Syme:
Vovan, would you mind pointing me to reasons the Gulag Archipelago may be considered bad history? I've heard the various claims you make about Solzenhitsyn, but in this context they seem like ad hominem reasons to ignore his account of the Gulag.
7.15.2006 12:30pm
Enoch:
The only "regimes" that Soviet Union supported during the Regan time are Syria, part of Yemen and to some extent Iraq.

To "some extent"? Only 69% of the dollar value of all arms sales to Iraq, 1973-1990, came from the USSR and her Warsaw Pact lackeys, compared to 0.5% from the US, which is what provokes all the screaming on the Left that "Reagan armed Saddam".

Let's not forget Libya, Algeria, Ethiopia, and Iran, all recipients of significant Soviet aid in the 1980s.

Now imagine the current Iraq war, but take away two decades of American military research and technology.

Except that much of the technology developed since 1980 is irrelevant to fighting the war in Iraq. We would have whipped Saddam in short order with the 1981 US military, and we would have had just as much of a problem with insurgents with the 1981 US military.

I think Reagan giving Iran a pass may have something to do with something I vaguely remember called "Iran/Contra".

Think again. Your timing is off. Hezbollah took hostages in 1983, and McFarlane didn't approach the Israelis about arms for Iran until mid-1985.

The British learned (in 1857 if not earlier) that meddling very deeply in any limited area of Islam brought with it the distinct danger of an explosion elsewhere and almost everywhere in Islam -- exactly the behavior we see in 2006.

What are you talking about? The Brits spent the entire century from 1857-1956 "meddling in limited areas of Islam" (and even in LARGE areas of Islam) and this brought no explosion elsewhere and everywhere in Islam.
7.15.2006 1:13pm
David (mail):
It seems that there were a lot of topics incorporated into this thread. I would like to try to comment on some.

First and foremost US foreign policy after WWII was fighting communism. That's how we got ourselves involved in Korea, Panama, Nicaragua, Viet Nam, etc. We viewed the world as strictly bi polar. Terrorism, while very much a part of the international scene, was viewed as secondary to defeating the "Red Menace". Reagan knew, as did other US presidents, that the USSR was shaky. It was viewed as no better than an LDC as a sort of Upper Volta with missiles. Reagan knew that the collapse was inevitable which is why he sounded so bellicose. He realized that as long as the USSR thought we were building our military might they would do so as well. The catch was however, that the US has the largest economy on earth, and it can afford the cost of "guns and butter" scenario, the USSR, could not. Ultimately, Reagan was proven correct.

However, during the Cold War, which I think was WWIII, we neglected the other areas of potential danger. we thought we could use the old fashion Hans Morenthau Balance of Power approach. However,this did not prove to work as effectively in a post Soviet world.

After the defeat of communism everyone breathed a sigh of relief, and for several years foreign policy was actually boring.

Then came new flare ups in the Middle East, and incidents with Muslim terrorists. World War IV actually began!!!!

Unfortunately, this is going to be a protracted and frustrating war. For years, we had used Israel as our proxy in the ME,howver, with Saddam this was different. Let's face it whether he had any real power or not, he was definately a destablizing force. The Saudis hated him, thw Kuwaitis hated him the Iraqis hated him, not to mention Israel. It was just a matter of time before someone took him out. We could not let Israel do it lest they ignight the entire region, so the task was left to the US. Unfortunately, Bush I did not do it, so he left the job for his successor. Clinton was inept at foreign policy, so that meant Bush II was left holding the bag. I do not think the US had a real "plan" for the Mid East, and just got stuck.


One more thing. As far as Commmunist China is concerned, I think the country is ready for a free fall.

The Renmimdi rate is fixed, and is artificially overvalued because it is tied to the US dollar and not allowed to float. The formally "red hot" economy, no pun intended, is beginning to slow, and Chinese labor is no longer the cheapest in the region. Manufacturing jobs are leaving the country as a result. What is bound to happen is a major financial crises, which will take the country years to repair. Remember, it does not have a capitalist infrastructure, and its leaders are basically despots in ill fitting siuts.
7.15.2006 2:06pm
Harry Eagar (mail):
Yes, Enoch, but the British were very careful about which areas they meddled in, and they frequently refrained from pursuing policies in, eg, Egypt because they were, correctly, nervous about what would happen in India.

Thus, it was possible for the British to conduct a war against the Mahdist army but not to reform the Egyptian legal system. It was possible for the British to bomb villages in Iraq but not to maintain its fleet in the Golden Horn.

Islamic politics are nothing if not complicated, but the Australian Islamophobe makes the point neatly this morning in a comment about the murder of Turrabi: 'You try to be the best little civilisation-hater you can be, railing against Israel and the US, and you still get blown to pieces by insane Islamic suicide bombers.'
7.15.2006 2:11pm
Armand (mail):
I think a key factor that likely led to what some might have seen as coddling of Iran and retreating from Hezbollah hasn't really been discussed much in this thread. Reagan was a good politician and knew a key matter that helped him sweep into office was the 444 day hostage crisis. There have been a number of works published that show Reagan to have been deathly afraid of something like that happening to him too. Given the political nightmare that that would have been he was eager to do all he could to avoid that possibility, even if it meant acquiescing and bargaining with political actors who'd killed many Americans.
7.15.2006 2:46pm
Mark F. (mail):
Many of the problems of the world have their root origins in Woodrow Wilson's foolish intervention in World War 1. The pattern is this: One intervention leads to problems which lead to another intervention which leads to the United States currently involved in the affairs of virtually the entire world.

Here's an idea: The United States should withdraw its military from outside the borders of the United States, starting with Iraq. All foreign military bases should be shut down. The U.S. should withdraw from all foreign defense alliances. All foreign aid should be ended, including aid to Israel. The President of the United States should announce that despite these actions, the United States will, of course, respond to any attack on its territory.
7.15.2006 3:07pm
Ming the Merciless Siamese Cat (mail):
Mark:

Brilliant idea, because isolationism worked so well in keeping the US out of WWI and WWII, and unilateral withdrawl is clearly the source of the unprecedented peace and security the Israelis are now enjoying, and Islamists would certainly recognize US withdrawl as a sign of America's strength and confidence and be too intimidated by it to launch further domestic attacks.
7.15.2006 3:42pm
Kevin L. Connors (mail) (www):
Mark demonstrates an all-too-common bit of misguided libertarian idealism. What it fails to recognize is that a nation has interests which transcend its borders. Unfortunately, mankind has not yet advanced far enough to where the interests of nations can be protected by non-violent means.
7.15.2006 4:23pm
Enoch:
the British were very careful about which areas they meddled in

It is problematic to describe British policy towards the Islamic world as one of prudence, caution, and restraint when it included such things as the occupation of Cairo, Constantinople, Damascus, Baghdad and Jerusalem, the partition of the region after World War I, the installation of local puppet rulers, and the harsh suppression of local revolts. In 1914, Kitchener proposed to "capture" and control Islam by installing a pro-British puppet Caliph in Mecca - this is your idea of wise, limited and careful meddling?

In fact, British understanding of Islam until 1945 was dismissive and unsophisticated. They thought that Islam could be bought, manipulated, and controlled by buying, manipulating and controlling its leaders, just as they had bought, manipulated and controlled countless local puppet rulers in Asia and Africa for centuries. Furthermore, while the British recognized the existence of Islam as a political fact with which they had to contend, they felt that Islamic opposition to the forces of modernization would diminish over time, just as the political power of Christianity had faded over time in the West.
7.15.2006 4:25pm
markm (mail):
A pragmatist doesn't trade arms for hostages

He does if it means we get hostages back, and Iranians use those weapons to kill Arabs.


What seems to have been forgotten here is that, if that was actually supposed to be an arms for hostages deal, we were cheated - and Oliver North and company kept coming back to be cheated again. I can't see any evidence that any hostages ever were released because of this deal.

This had nothing to do with the embassy hostages; the Ayatollah's regime wisely sent them back before Reagan even took office. The "arms for hostages" deals concerned a half-dozen or so American kidnapped in Lebanon. We weren't giving the arms to the (mostly unknown)groups or families that actually were holding these hostages, but selling them (at a nice profit) to allegedly moderate Iranis who claimed to have some influence over the hostage takers. The arms were delivered and paid for, but no hostages were released. More rounds of armament sales were arranged, but the only hostage released was a rabidly pro-Islamic American teacher whom only idiots would have kidnapped in the first place. (His wife claimed that this release was due to her finally convincing an Arab leaders to find and reason with said idiots.) Another hostage was beaten to death, but two more Americans were soon kidnapped as replacements. And yet the arms shipments continued...
7.15.2006 4:55pm
C. Owen Johnson (mail):
As an career intelligence analyst who worked these problems during the Reagan year, I can say this is actually a very complex question and I don't think this thread has done much to address it. Of course, it is not really possible to address it adequately here. Suffice it to say that Reagan's actions WRT Iran were primarily the result of needing to deal with the USSR, the Iran-Iraq war, the Soviet War in Afghanistan, and the actions of various Soviet proxies in other parts of the world.

It is correct to say that Reagan's overriding foreign policy goal was to bring about the collapse of the USSR without open war and defuse the US-USSR nuclear standoff. Other foreign issues could not -- and should not have been -- considered independently of this. In this sense Reagan did not "coddle" Iran.

It is not correct to say that Reagan saw the Iranians as potential allies of the U.S. against godless Communism. They were a factor that needed to be managed, especially with the Soviet military active next door.

Nor is it accurate to say that Reagan "sowed the seeds of WWIII, by allowing and sometimes encouraging fanatical anti-Western Sunni and Shiite Islamicism to flourish." It is accurate to say that Reagan did not kill these seeds, mainly because her was not in a position to do so.

It is also accurate to say that the collapse of the USSR help create the conditions necessary for fanatical Islamicism to flourish, in that radical Islam could not become a potent international force with a vigorous USSR in the world. However, Reagan's "neglect" the problem of radical Islam is not the root cause of today's conflict. Carter deserves some blame for this, as has been pointed out, but Clinton deserves more. (The previous Bush administration deserves some blame as well, though for very reasons.) Those who doubt this proposition are referred to the many writings of OBL from the 90s as well as various interviews he gave. This is not the only evidence, of course, but it is among the most accessible.

Finally, though not directly related, those to hold the view that the USSR collapsed because of internal contradictions, "disastrous" policy decisions, and the like, base their conclusion on false premises and unfounded assumptions. Again, there is not enough space here to go into this in detail (if this discomfits those who disagree with me, sorry.) But to put a major point as succinctly as I can: policy decisions are only "disastrous" compared to the expectations of those making them and/or those affected by them. People can endure extraordinary hardship without social collapse, as both N. Korea and Cuba show, and both countries are worse off than the USSR was at the time it collapsed and have been for decades. Yet N. Korea remains a serious threat.

Likewise, internal contradictions do not necessarily predispose a society to collapse. They collapse when pressure is brought to bear that makes those contradictions operative and critical. Reagan's genius -- and I do not use that term lightly -- was that he saw this and applied exactly the right pressure to cause the USSR to fold. How exactly this came about is a fascinating story, but one for a book, not this space.
7.15.2006 5:28pm
Kevin L. Connors (mail) (www):
We must also consider our current global security problems, as a result of our myopic anti-Soviet tact in Afghanistan. This is not limited to the very well reported on facilitation of what was to become the Taliban and al-Qaeda, but also A. Q. Khan, and nuclear arms to anyone with the bucks.
7.15.2006 6:01pm
Harry Eagar (mail):
Johnson's summary does give a good flavor of the fantasy that pervaded Reaganism. Internal contradictions do bring down regimes.

As for blaming the victims, whichever US president you choose, that's just silly. Islam in 2006 is just what it was in 806. It has a program. The program looked positive for Islam up to about 1709 (when the last Muslim ruler who controlled a really potent army died), and then it got smashed badly every time any Muslim attempted to pursue it for the next 300 years.

A lot of stuff happened since 1898, but for Muslims the lesson they think they have learned is that there will never be another Omdurman. So they can go back to the program they pursued up until the 18th century (and later in areas where European policy was indifferent).
7.15.2006 7:34pm
fishbane (mail):
It is obvious that [mistake] made by Reagan can be laid at Carter's feet, while similarly, [success on something] means that Reagan should be the name of, well, everything. Iphonle Reagan had [another term, not gone senile, fill in the blank], the budget would be balanced, communiterrorism would be fixed, and my garden would have a higher output. And I'd drive to work turning off of Reagan Pky. onto Reagan Drive, and then dunk through Reagan Tunnel to park in Reagan National Parkinglot.

Ahem. I really don't understand the hero worship.
7.15.2006 11:28pm
Gaius Obvious (mail):
I hate to link to someone else's analysis, but this explanation by Amir Taheri called "America can't do a Thing" explains it pretty succinctly why Carter and Zbigniew Brzezinski created the strategy of encouraging Muslim fanacticism to counter an expansionist atheistic communism. It's worth reading in whole. Reagan just inherited the policy and used it to his advantage against the Soviets.
Carter had decided to support Khomeini in the context of the so-called "Green Belt" strategy developed by National Security Adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski. That strategy was based on the assumption that the United States and its allies were unable to contain the Soviet Union, then expanding its zone of influence into Africa, the Indian Ocean region and, through left-leaning regimes, in Latin America. To counter that expanding threat, Brzezinski envisaged the creation of a string of Islamic allies that, for religious and political reasons, would prefer the United States against the "godless" Soviet empire.

The second stage in Brzezinski's grand strategy was to incite the Muslim peoples of the Soviet Union to revolt against Moscow and thus frustrate its global schemes.

The Bzrezinski strategy had been partly inspired by Helene Carrere d'Encausse, who, in her book "The Fragmented Empire," predicted the disintegration of the Soviet Union as a result of revolts by Muslim minorities.

When the Islamic revolution started in Iran, the Carter administration saw it as the confirmation of its assumption that only Islamists could muster enough popular support to provide an alternative to both the existing regime and the pro-Soviet leftist movements.
7.16.2006 1:34am
Gaius Obvious (mail):
Oops. I left out the link.

"America can't do a Thing", by Amir Taheri.
7.16.2006 1:36am
Alan K. Henderson (mail) (www):
One problem with Carter's strategy was that we already had a staunch anticommunist ally in the Shah - Iran didn't need a new regime to become America-friendly.

Was undermining the Somoza regime in Nicaragua part of the "Green Belt" strategy? If so, its effect was opposite from the one intended.

I was under the impression that Carter's snafus in Nicaragua and Iran were fueled primarily by his hamhanded meddling in human rights issues, and his naivete about who was waiting in the wings to replace Somoza and the Shah. Not very many presidents can claim to have played a role in the advancement of totalitarianism in two separate countries.
7.16.2006 2:55am
fred:
It's unfortunate that so many think that the Soviet Union fell of its own weight. One poster recommended "Commanding Heights" the excellent series on the economy that PBS did several years ago. Also read Peter Schwiezer's "Reagan's War" which outlines the vast array of pressures that were put on the Soviet Union by the U.S and its allies once Reagan took office. Only when substantial outside pressure was brought to bear was Gorbachev possible in the Soviet System. They had no other choice.

If the Soviet Union was falling of its own weight, why didn't the experts who now claim that, draw our attention to that fact before it happened? Why did Paul Samuelson's "Economics" textbook, perhaps the most widely used text ever used, in the 1980's refer to the Soviet Style economy as a fairly decent way to go. Why the changes:


But starting with the ninth edition, references to the ideas and followers of Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels expanded dramatically, including a biography of Marx and a nine-page appendix on Marxian economics. In the preface to that edition, Samuelson wrote: "It is a scandal that, until recently, even majors in economics were taught nothing of Karl Marx except he was an unsound fellow" (9:ix). Samuelson added in the tenth edition that "at least a tenth of U. S. economists" fell into the "radical" category (10:849). However, this expanded coverage did not mute his criticism of Marxist beliefs. With the fall of the Soviet Union, the discussion of Marx shrank from 12 pages in the fourteenth edition to three pages in the fifteenth (1995) edition, including a two-paragraph biography of Marx, and no appendix on Marxian economics." Typical of the tone: "Marx was wrong about many things--notably the superiority of socialism as an economic system--but that does not diminish his stature as an important economist" (15:7)

...The twelfth edition replaced the graph with a table declaring that between 1928 and 1983, the Soviet Union had grown at a remarkable 4.9 percent annual growth rate, higher than did the United States, the United Kingdom, or even Germany and Japan (12:776). By the thirteenth edition (1989), Samuelson and Nordhaus declared, "the Soviet economy is proof that, contrary to what many skeptics had earlier believed, a socialist command economy can function and even thrive" (13:837). Samuelson and Nordhaus were riot alone in their optimistic: views about Soviet central planning; other popular textbooks were also generous in their descriptions of economic life under communism prior to the collapse of the Soviet Union.7

By the next edition, the fourteenth, published during the demise of the Soviet Union, Samuelson and Nordhaus dropped the word "thrive" and placed question marks next to the Soviet statistics, adding "the Soviet data are questioned by many experts" (14:389). The fifteenth edition (1995) has no chart at all, declaring Soviet Communism "the failed model" (15:714-8). To their credit, Samuelson and Nordhaus (15:737) were willing to admit that they and other textbook writers failed to anticipate the collapse of communism: "In the 1980s and 1990s, country after country threw off the shackles of communism and stifling central planning--not because the textbooks convinced them to do so but because they used their own eyes and saw how the market-oriented countries of the West prospered while the command economies of the East collapsed."


In general, It appears that those who were touting the Soviet Union before the fall have just moved to the "It fell of its own weight" theory after the fall.

As to the original question: Reagan did not attack the Arabs in the 1980's because the Soviet Union was still around. If he had invaded, the Soviets would have been forced to defend their proxies in the region, and we would have risked World War III. This almost happened during 1973 during the Yom Kippur War.
7.16.2006 10:55am
dw (mail):
fred wrote:


If the Soviet Union was falling of its own weight, why didn't the experts who now claim that, draw our attention to that fact before it happened?


In fact, among analysts and especially military analysts, there was considerable favor for the so-called "fat Russian" theory, in which the disfunctional economy had rendered the state unable to function for all but a limited few. A miliatry example should suffice: while the priveledged position of the Officer Corps. among the Nomenclatura of the Soviet Union kept the Corps confortable ("Fat") and resistant to reform, while the basis was faced with broken supply lines, failed equipment maintenance, infrastructure collapse, and a total disfunction of pay systems and basic personnel services. In other words, a total inertia had set in in which the Officers did not want to reform, and the basis was so constrained by the hardships of daily life and a culture of subservience that they could not be agents in reform.

As someone who had the opportunity at first hand to examine the Soviet military in the GDR after the war, I can confirm this viewpoint. The Officers (and a young Vladimir Putin, incidentally, who served as an intelligence agent in the GDR at the time) enjoyed their plum assignments in the relatively well-off GDR, including hard currency and shopping priveledges in special GDR shops as well as in West Berlin, while the rank-and-file soldiers were reduced to subsistance gardening and taking part-time jobs or trading in markets in order to survive. An army cannot function when individual soldiers are reduced to selling anything they wore, carried, or could steal in public vegetable markets. The infrastructure that the united German state took over from Soviets in the East was not in ruins, and even the most optimistic estimates for readiness had risen to over twelve months time.
7.16.2006 1:16pm
Vovan:
To Syme,

Архипелаг ГУЛаг has as much truth to it as the Da Vinci code. A lot of numbers have been released since then, that contradict most of the previous findings (including Conquest, Solzhenitsyn, etc.)

Hope you can read Russian :), if not then just google "Viktor Zemskov", take it from there.
7.16.2006 1:18pm
Harry Eagar (mail):
dw, I think you meant 'in ruins' rather than 'not in ruins.'

People with actual experience of the USSR in the 1970s understood what a fantasy state it had become. Outsiders, Reagan and his advisers included, generally didn't. Reagan's admirers like to forget it now, but the Reaganites really did believe that a vast Christian counterrevolution against the atheist communists had been on the verge of happening every year since 1921 and only the fecklessness of the previous 10 presidents had prevented it from coming about.

The event that signaled the coming collapse of a rotten state structure in 1980 was not the election of Reagan but the bizarre reversal of 60 years of Soviet policy by sending the Red Army across the national border.

The defensive war against Germany and Japan had carried the Red Army far, but neither before nor after had Stalin nor any of his successors risked using the Red Army for aggressive campaigns.

Other than the suggestion that Brezhnev was senile, I don't know of any attempt to explain why the USSR government abandoned this key policy.
7.16.2006 1:55pm
Stan Peterson (mail):
it is fasionable by even conservatives to posit that the present situation is as bad as it ever was.

I beg to differ.

International Communism was and still is a truly abominable philosophy and governing method.

I am prone to quote Lincoln when confronted with the irritation of the English in removing some Confederate ambasssadors from a British ship

"One war at a time" is Lincoln's aphorism as he backtracked.

I hear from the socalled "cognicesnti" that a couple of sub-state collections of thugs, and three third rate dictatorships are capable of causing the equal of a Soviet American nuclear exchage as somewhat overstated.

In fact these groups are strategically separated and isolated. Syria and Iran have 10 American divisons deployed between them. That Army is already deployed, and not in Europe or America and unable to face either of these tiny gnats.

Do you think Syria would last as long as the thirty hours that Iraq's military did? Or can the IDF do it by themselves? Iran is a hollow shell seething with internal rebellion. The mullah's government would likely collapse fairly quickly too. Meanwhile each is isolated, cannot support each other, and can be defeated in detail.

As for North Korea, the significance of the UN strategic embargo resolution is unrecognized. It ends the NK only source of foreign exchange, now that counterfeiting has been terminated. The USN can now not only stop but now can confiscate NK arms exports; and its imports as well.

DPNK is a shell ready to topple.

Peace may well break out very quickly in but a few months or years.

Who saw the collapse of Soviet Communism in 1988?

Did you?
7.16.2006 4:33pm
Harry Eagar (mail):
Me? Yes, of course. I saw in when they had to buy our corn in the 1970s.

I then went back and read some history and realized that Bukharin had foretold that problem in 1923.

To be precise, neither Bukharin nor I could narrow it down as close as 1988. But see it coming?

On the other side, the Marxists have been predicting the collapse of international capitalism for 150 years now.

Everybody sees things coming. Fools see things that are not there.
7.16.2006 5:39pm
China Law Blog (www):
I do not think we have ever known quite what to do with Iran, going back even to the pre-Shah days. The problem is that it is in the Middle East, and yet not Arab. Also, it is a country with a real history and a very large, well educated and sophisticated group that calls for change. I think we are reluctant to do anything with Iran becuase we are constantly hoping for internal change there. I for one still hope for that and believe it will happen eventually.
7.17.2006 9:54am
Curtis (mail):
It was no small thing to mount a long-term, aggressive approach to Communism at that time. One can recall how many considered Reagan to be, at best, careless and all but maniacal.

But even if one considers his plate to be full in that regard, perhaps even he would have modified some positions regarding Iran and such were he to have the opportunity to do so now. That's swallowing the wind, though...
7.17.2006 11:52am
Jeek:
The defensive war against Germany and Japan had carried the Red Army far, but neither before nor after had Stalin nor any of his successors risked using the Red Army for aggressive campaigns.

The Soviet war against Japan was "defensive"? I don't think so. If ever there were a country that did NOT want to attack the USSR, it was Japan in 1945.

I suppose you don't think that the Soviet invasions of Poland or Finland 1939 count as "aggressive campaigns" across the Soviet border? They, too, were "defensive wars" in your view?
7.17.2006 1:28pm
te (mail):

You can't really blame the Reaganites too much, as they did indeed defeat Communism.

What pap.

Last time I checked, China (which has like a billion people or something, you know - and that is alot) still existed. And let's see they have central governement consisting of unelected party loyalists, tightly control the media, centrally plan much of the economy, etc. Is that not communism?

Yes, they make our t-shirts and iPods, now. But our country will do business with any repressive regime as long as they serve our interests.

Wake up fool.
7.17.2006 2:17pm
bigchris1313 (mail):
Te, you clearly have not read the whole thread.
7.17.2006 3:44pm
Public_Defender (mail):
You’re right that the Reagan let anti-communism blind him to other concerns. For example, he fought to protect the racist South African government from a democracy movement led by that well-known thug Nelson Mandela.

Of course, as I’ve pointed out in other comments, Reagan didn’t mind using racism for his personal political advantage (appealing to "state's rights" when the context was clear he meant state's rights to preserve the remnants of Jim Crow), so maybe two of his interests converged.
7.17.2006 4:38pm
Rich Rostrom (mail):
The Reaganites found the mess in Lebanon unsolvable at any reasonable political cost, especially with the Cold War still on.

The "arms for hostages" connection offered two things: release of the U.S. citizens held captive by mysterious factions in Lebanon; and friendly contact with the Iranian military, which had a long history of interoperation with the U.S. At the time, the Iraq war forced the ayatollahs to work with and tolerate military professionals from the Shah's regime. The hope was that the U.S.-provided spare parts etc would empower these professionals and weaken the regime. The quantities were actually rather small, and Iran was being charged far over the "list price", too.
7.18.2006 12:52am